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-- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . Single-family auths flat in Sep/Oct. Reporting Walter J. We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). As Tim notes, this is a gobsmacking error. Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. He believes the economy has collapsed, based upon his calculations on economic. Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. Shadowstats debunked. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Informal Economy Sizes. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting. (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies ET), with posing here May 2nd; Wednesday, May 3rd; the May FOMC Meeting draws to a close, with a Press Release (at 2:00 p.m. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5% Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. In summary, Shadow Stats constructed their alternative measure by taking a 5.1% difference between CPIU and CPIURS (the BLS's retroactive adjustment) and misinterpreted it as an ANNUAL difference when it was in fact a CUMULATIVE difference. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! (February 3rd 2023/April 5th 2022) U.S. GOVERNMENT DETERIORATING FISCAL CONDITIONS/ INTENSIFYING FISCAL CRISIS [In context of the United States once again at the brink of breaking its Debt Ceiling and risking default ] Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions Data downloads and the Inflation Calculator are Subscriber only. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The original Money Supply measure, Basic M-1 is defined as Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. 1461. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. Current liquidity and political risks and issues are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation . Unemployment. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In Australia, unions are already demanding 3 per cent annual pay rises in wage negotiations, while Labor's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers used Tuesday's data to highlight that inflation was. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). Please contact johnwilliams@shadowstats.com for further details or any questions. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. Public Comment on Inflation Measurement & the Chained CPI-U, Update 2016Update 2015Hyperinflation 20142014 Second InstallmentDeficit Reality. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. While the now-broadest aggregate Money Supply M2 declined year-to-year by 4.1% (-4.1%) in March 2023, the highly liquid and inflation driving Basic M1 was up by 4.8% year-to-year. Your Shadow subscription. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Background definitions and related detailed discussion, historical data and graphs for each of the Money Supply Series were covered in Benchmark Commentary No. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). The latest Economic and Inflation releases were covered earlier in the Opening Section of this DAILY UPDATE. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. For example, they . Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Read more about the World Economics Informal Economy database. Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions, Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound ET); Thursday, May 4th, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release the March 2023 Trade Deficit (8:30 a.m. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking) (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clientslarge and smallincluding talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. P E N D I N G .. P O S T I N G S Monday, May 1st, the Census Bureau releases March 2023 Construction Spending (10:00 a.m. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The dotted lines are the overlayed series created from the official CPI statistics. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams.
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